Stochastic Model and Rhythm-Adaptive Technologies of Statistical Analysis and Forecasting of Economic Processes with Cyclic Components
| dc.contributor.author | Lupenko, Serhii | |
| dc.contributor.author | Horkunenko, Andrii | |
| dc.date.accessioned | 2025-09-25T13:00:54Z | |
| dc.date.available | 2025-09-25T13:00:54Z | |
| dc.date.issued | 2025-05-19 | |
| dc.description.abstract | This article presents a mathematical model of cyclical economic processes, formulated as the sum of a deterministic polynomial function and a cyclic random process that simultaneously captures trend, stochasticity, cyclicity, and rhythm variability. Building on this stochastic framework, we propose rhythm-adaptive statistical techniques for estimating the probabilistic characteristics of the cyclic component; by adjusting to rhythm changes, these techniques improve estimation accuracy. We also introduce a forecasting procedure that constructs a system of rhythm-adaptive confidence intervals for future cycles. The effectiveness of the model and associated methods is demonstrated through a series of computational experiments using Federal Reserve Economic Data. Results show that the rhythm-adaptive forecasting approach achieves mean absolute errors less than half of those produced by a comparable non-adaptive method, underscoring its practical advantage for the analysis and prediction of cyclic economic phenomena. | |
| dc.identifier.citation | Lupenko S, Horkunenko A. Stochastic Model and Rhythm-Adaptive Technologies of Statistical Analysis and Forecasting of Economic Processes with Cyclic Components. Forecasting. 2025; 7(2):20. https://doi.org/10.3390/forecast7020020 | |
| dc.identifier.issn | 2571-9394 | |
| dc.identifier.uri | https://er.auk.edu.ua/handle/234907866/161 | |
| dc.language.iso | en_US | |
| dc.subject | mathematical modeling | |
| dc.subject | cyclic economic processes | |
| dc.subject | cyclic random process | |
| dc.subject | rhythm-adaptive statistical processing | |
| dc.subject | forecasting | |
| dc.title | Stochastic Model and Rhythm-Adaptive Technologies of Statistical Analysis and Forecasting of Economic Processes with Cyclic Components | |
| dc.type | Article |