THE EFFECT OF RUSSIAN WAR IN UKRAINE ON THE OIL MARKETS
| dc.contributor.author | Donchenko, Oleksandr | |
| dc.date.accessioned | 2024-02-20T13:46:29Z | |
| dc.date.available | 2024-02-20T13:46:29Z | |
| dc.date.issued | 2024 | |
| dc.description.abstract | The intensification of the Russian war in Ukraine has been eroding global markets, disrupting established trade routes, and contributing to the inflation of food and energy prices worldwide. Since 2014, the war has exerted unbearable costs for Ukraine, and the brutal unprovoked escalation in Feb-ruary 2022 caused even more burden through the intolerable loss of lives, the unprecedented migra-tion crisis, the substantial budget deficit, and economic downturn. The Russian government has been predominantly financed through the export of fossil fuels. Therefore, it’s of the highest strategic im-portance for Ukraine to influence the aggressor’s ability to finance the war through the unification of international efforts. In this capstone project, we try to understand the effect of the Russian war escalation in Ukraine on energy markets. The analysis focuses on revealing the interdependencies among Russian oil spot, WTI and Brent futures prices. The series covers the period from July 12, 2018, to October 4, 2023. To summarize, our findings reveal the post-February 2022 change in the price mechanism of the international oil markets. In the aftermath of large-scale military operation, Russia has lost its stra-tegic position in terms of the “influence” on the oil futures markets, and the direction of “causality” has been lost or reshuffled towards Russian traders. These results underscore the importance of inter-national sanctions limiting the aggressor’s ability to continue the war. Considering the broader con-text, the implications of this research fortify Ukraine’s communication strategy in lobbying to limit Russia’s prospect on energy markets. | |
| dc.identifier.uri | https://er.auk.edu.ua/handle/234907866/33 | |
| dc.language.iso | en_US | |
| dc.subject | oil | |
| dc.subject | futures | |
| dc.subject | spot | |
| dc.subject | price | |
| dc.subject | causality | |
| dc.subject | pre-escalation | |
| dc.subject | post-escalation | |
| dc.subject | Russia | |
| dc.subject | Ukraine | |
| dc.title | THE EFFECT OF RUSSIAN WAR IN UKRAINE ON THE OIL MARKETS | |
| dc.title.alternative | ВПЛИВ РОСІЙСЬКОЇ ВІЙНИ В УКРАЇНІ НА НАФТОВІ РИНКИ | |
| dc.type | Thesis |